An RCC Media/Gallup poll reveals that if the presidential elections were today, incumbent President Luis Abinader would receive 48.3% of the vote, former President Leonel Fernández would get 25.9% of the vote, and Santiago Mayor Abel Martínez would get 18.2% of the vote. 7.6% of those polled said they were undecided. Abinader is the most likely candidate for the ruling Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM); Leonel Fernandez is the most likely candidate for the Fuerza del Pueblo (FP) and Abel Martínez is the pre-candidate for the former ruling party, the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). The presidential candidates will be announced in October 2023.
The same poll says that in case a presidential candidate does not receive 50%+1 of the vote, in a second-round vote Abinader would win with 45.9%l, Leonel Fernandez would receive 27.9% and Abel Martinez would receive 19.9% of the vote.
The Fuerza del Pueblo is a dissident group founded when Leonel Fernández split from the PLD after then President Danilo Medina backed his minister of Public Works Gonzalo Castillo as presidential candidate in the 2020 presidential election. There is speculation the FP and PLD could rejoin to present a unified candidate in 2024. But the Gallup poll indicates that this would not be enough to defeat incumbent Luis Abinader. The airing in the judiciary of major corruption scams involving family members of former President Danilo Medina and leading cabinet ministers of the past administration has kept the PLD at a relatively low profile in promoting its pre-candidate Abel Martinez. The Constitution impedes former President Danilo Medina from running again for President, not so former President Leonel Fernandez who pushed through a change to the Constitution in 2015 that enables him to seek office again.
The recent RCC/Gallup poll also showed that former President Leonel Fernandez (FP) has the highest rejection rate with 37.3%, compared to 26.6% of Luis Abinader (PRM) and 20.7% of Abel Martinez (PLD).
In the 2020 presidential election, Luis Abinader won with 52.5% of the vote. Leonel Fernandez received 8.9% of the vote.
The general election calendar establishes that political parties need to choose their presidential candidates in October for the 19 May 2024 presidential election.
The same poll indicates that 62% of eligible voters approve the administration of President Luis Abinader. The poll also placed the rising cost of living as the most important issue for Dominicans today.
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El Nuevo Diario
11 April 2023